FLUX.MD - David Shahnazaryan, former head of secret services, former ambassador, political and civic activist (Armenia)
First of all, I would like to express my heartfelt thanks to the organizers of this event – for creating an opportunity for us to participate and to speak in these discussions. Although I disagree with some of what has been said here, communicating with such a bright audience is certainly helpful and enjoyable.
As for globalization, I would like to stress that I am neither globalist nor anti-globalist. I think that there are both positive and negative in globalization. At present, one of the most dangerous outcomes of globalization is the globalization of danger, threat, and unpredictability. Today, virtually all the countries across Eurasia and not only, experience what we call lack of security.
Today we live in a world where a friend of your friend can be your enemy, and a friend of your enemy can be your friend as well. We live in an extremely explosive world.
I just would like to present some considerations in view of the dangerous developments around the Islamic Republic, as Washington and Tehran remain locked in the ongoing standoff with no end in sight.
Given the large number of key players and stakeholders in this process, involving both public and non-public actors, it is not ruled out that one of the players may attempt to provoke a hostility that could be portrayed as ‘war by accident’.
But it is also evident that the geography of the military operation theater would expand significantly across the region. Military operations may embrace countries that would be involved in war inadvertently. As a result, the number of nations involved in hostilities would increase dramatically and the hostilities would extend throughout the Middle East- from Syria to the UAE, from Iran to Saudi Arabia, and so on.
It is more than obvious that in the event of hostilities or war, it would be impossible to calculate all the scenarios, but one thing is clear: massive airstrikes against Iran would trigger a large influx of refugees from that country. Most likely, Turkey would close its borders, and those flows would head north to the borders with Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In the event of such developments, it may be difficult for Azerbaijan to sit on different geopolitical chairs at the same time and official Baku would be more likely to allow Russia to take control of its border with Iran (including its exclave Nakhichevan) as the large flow of refugees would become a source of serious domestic political instability.
The Russia-Iran relations are already acquiring strategic allied qualities. As evidence, we can point out the recently signed agreement on expanded military cooperation between Iran and Russia. Iran is pursuing closer ties with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The sides are completing a set of procedures necessary for the entry into force of an interim agreement establishing a free trade zone between Iran and the EEU, which is to begin operating staring October 27, 2019.
Back to the negative manifestations of globalization, there is one concern I would like to share with you – it is the spreading globalization of new values.Particularly in my country, Armenia, there are processes underway that are extremely dangerous to our statehood. A Western organization has a huge influence on the incumbent Armenian government, runs a large network of NGOs, which are actually weakening our statehood, and openly protect those who commit terrorist acts. Let me be clear what organization I am talking about – it is the Open Society Foundations or the Soros Foundation, which is acting against the Armenian statehood, against Nagorno-Karabakh, seeking to weaken our armed forces.
These problems are of vital importance to Armenia because if Georgia is Georgia even without Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Ukraine is Ukraine even without Crimea, Donbassand Lugansk, the Republic of Armenia will be in danger of losing its statehood without the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The activities of the aforementioned organization are primarily directed against Nagorno-Karabakh.
think that a new international security system could be created only through cooperation by Russia, the United States and China. I think we should all, with our modest means, promote this idea that the world has no other way than to create a new security system.
Many thanks for your attention.